The establishment and the 1980 primaries

I thought Karl's assertion about neither of the current POTUS candidates being establishment was interesting. I'm not sure what "establishment" means; sort of the opposite of populist, I suppose. I think both candidates are well aligned with factions within their party, but not the factions which have most recently held power.

In the case of Obama, I think the alignment is best represented by the endorsement of Ted Kennedy. Ted Kennedy challenged Jimmy Carter for the Dem nomination in 1980. His campaign was seen as an insurgence by the liberal wing against the somewhat centrist platform of Carter, and the push away from centrism which Kennedy and colleagues forced on the Dem platform probably contributed significantly to Reagan's win. The Mondale and Dukakis candidacies perpetuated the leftist insurgence within the party, while the Clinton/Gore presidency was a move back to the pragmatic center. Kerry strikes me as a leftist who wanted to appear centrist, and I view his nomination as a transition between the power of the two factions.

In the case of McCain, I see him as very much in the mode of Eisenhower/Nixon/Ford Republicans, who had little interest in domestic politics, and who adopted a realpolitik approach to foreign policy. This faction was represented in the 1980 primary by George H.W. Bush. Like the Dems, the Republican party also had an insurgence in 1980. In this case it was by the Reagan-led alliance of small-goverment Goldwater acolytes, Christian social conservatives and anti-Soviet foreign policy ideologues. Unlike the Kennedy-led Dem insurgence, the Reaganites won, and have held sway over the party up through the current presidency (including George HW Bush's single term).

So, while I think it's accurate to say both candidates are from until recently out-of-power factions within their respective parties, I wouldn't describe either of them as non-Establishment. Now Ralph Nader, on the other hand...

I see this election as very much in the mold of the 1980 election, with McCain playing the role of Carter and Obama the role of Reagan. And I think the outcome will likely be similar. On a personal level, I was pulling for Romney and then Clinton, and currently support McCain. While I was initially intrigued by Obama, I soon realized that despite his "purple" appeal to independents and his inspirational rhetoric, his policy and personality were very unappealing to me.