Weather and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction

Let me start by saying that I love having this forum to discuss interesting topics with intelligent people. I'm glad that there are a wide variety of opinions and ideas. Thanks Peter, for getting this started and organizing it. In reference to your book choice, I'd really enjoy a discussion on the temple, so that would be my first choice. But I'd be happy with any of the three choices.

As for this month's book, I have only read the cover page and the bibliography/appendix thing at the back, but I am very impressed with the title. How our fears shape our public decision making is a very interesting topic.

In my contemplation this morning, I found a surprising number of parallels between global warming and the war in Iraq. Let me explain.

Pollution vs. Saddam Hussein

Saddam was a problem for a number of years. Nobody in the world argued the assertion that Saddam was a bad man, doing lots of bad things. However, this in and of itself was not enough to justify our invasion of Iraq. Not even after he invaded Kuwait. An invasion of Iraq needed to be justified by a bigger fear (see below). Similarly, no one is arguing that pollution is bad.

Global Warming vs. Weapons of Mass Destruction

Saddam alone wasn't worth the sacrifice of American lives and money, but Saddam with WMDs is an unimaginable worst case scenario that justified the cost. Similarly, pollution alone isn't worth the cost of slowing down our economy and the extra burden, but global warming and the unimaginable thought of "Waterworld", "The Day After Tomorrow" or "Wall-E", now that's worth sacrificing for.

Consensus

Not fair, you say. We KNOW there is global warming, but we didn't know if there were WMDs. I agree, we do know there is global warming, but we don't know if it will be catastrophic. That's a key difference. We knew that Saddam had weapons, just not weapons of mass destruction. We knew that Saddam was avoiding UN inspectors and acting like he had WMDs. There was a consensus in the political community that Saddam had WMDs, even among those that didn't go to war with us. Which leads to my next point...

No Coalition

Bush gets ripped to shreds for not forming a broad coalition before going into Iraq. He called it leadership. We are, after all, the only superpower. Now, there's a call for leadership in climate change without the agreement of important contributers, namely China and India.

Going in without the right plan

According to the great vision of hindsight, many have said that we could have avoided many of the problems in Iraq if we had just gone in with the right plan. Well, personally I think that many environmentalists have been going about things the wrong way. From what I've read, biofuels and wind power don't appear to be the solutions they've been touted to be. I think the cap and trade system will be a bureaucratic mess that will have very little impact on our net Carbon emissions.

Al Gore vs. Dick Cheney

Haliburton benefitted nicely from the war in Iraq, and similarly, many of the todays most fervent environmentalists will have "greener" wallets as the global warming movement picks up steam.

How long we'll be there

For some, the problem with Iraq wasn't that we went in, but that we can't get back out. Similarly, if the government bolsters up its payrolls with green collar workers, I imagine it will be tough to let those workers off when the job is over. It's never politically popular to let people go. And the effects of a cap and trade system will linger just as long as our troops stay in Iraq.

The "What if..." factor

Getting out of Iraq is complicated by several fears and hopes, namely the fear of a terrorist breeding ground if we leave and the hope of a democratic Iraq and eventually a democratic Middle East. History may one day see George Bush as a hero and one of our greatest presidents. Stranger things have happened. Interestingly, it's the fear, more than the hope that drives people's opinions. Similarly, the fear of cataclysmic weather is much more motivating than the hope of a pristine environment. The "What If..." factor will ensure that we never leave Iraq and that we will always worry and legislate our effect on the environment.

My Conclusion

There are intelligent people that support the war in Iraq, and there are more intelligent people that support drastic government intervention to reduce our impact on the environment. I respect both groups, even though often they are either of vastly different political persuasions or they voted for McCain. I don't know the correctness of either cause. There will always be that "What if..." factor. However, I have stopped believing the argument that there are people smarter than me that have a lot more information than I do, and that I should just trust them. (Note: I have no doubt that there are people smarter than me and with more experience, but I now require a higher level of evidence from them. If they're so smart, they should be able to explain it to me and not just require me to trust them. (Note: That means if they want me to trust a computer model's output for 10 years down the road, they should start by predicting one year down the road.))

I know it's becoming a bit cliche to blame Bush, but I like to blame him for making me more cynical. I got sucked into the justification for the war in Iraq, thinking that he had access to information that I didn't, and when I felt deceived later, I tried to learn from my mistakes. After the dot.com bubble, you've got to recognize the signs of a housing bubble. While I think that a big government-backed environmental movement is inevitable, I still have a faint hope that they will go in with a good plan.

In the meantime, I will try to do my part to help the environment. We recycle, and while I don't bike to work like Paul, I do work from home 2 days a week. And if the government wants to save the environment, they can ask me to work from home every day.